Indian Maritime policy is one of the most dynamic aspects of Indian foreign policy. The Indian state has continuously changed their stance towards the foreign policy. Before continuing our discussion on India’s adoption of this approach and what is The Sagar policy, as introduced by the Modi Government, it is imperative to first have a brief introduction on this topic.
Globalization has linked the world in greater ways than ever before, there is an extremely high level of inter connectedness and the world, has been converted into a global village. This is also coupled with an increasing desire as well as a need among all the different countries in the world to establish strong international relationships and also to be in a probable position to contest for a dominant position in the global world order. India’s swinging foreign policy can easily be encapsulated in the context of this understanding. India has been vigorously working on increasing her stature and position in the world affairs and maritime affairs seem to be occupying an extremely important position in that context. Indian maritime policy has been continuously: evolving: so as to sit the as well as respond to the changing requirements of the contemporary world order. International affairs thrive on the aspect of diplomacy, a goal that is largely being pursued in the workings of the Indian Maritime Policy.
India and Russia will be holding their 21st annual summit on 6 December 2021. The president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will be hosted by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the flagship event. The visit by the Russian delegation is also important this year as the inaugural session of the 2+2 dialogue will be convened at the side-lines of the annual summit. Russia’s Defence and Foreign ministers will hold talks with their counterparts. Considering how the cancellation of the annual summit last year created debates in Chinese media pertaining to the waning India-Russia partnership, the 21st summit has attracted more attention than most Indian engagements India this year. This is in light of the geopolitical landscape undergoing tectonic shifts like the formation of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the AUKUS pact, the institutionalization of QUAD, tensions between Ukraine and Russia, and India’s soured relations with China and Pakistan.
The annual summit is happening at a time when the Russian S-400 anti-missile defence systems deliveries are underway in India. The deal worth more than US $5 billion has been under intense scrutiny due to the US’ CAATSA act which sanctions substantive engagements with US adversaries (Russia/Iran/North Korea). Whether India faces sanctions or gets waivers by the Biden administration will decide the future course of the India-US partnership as well. India and Russia have shown renewed interest in strengthening defence partnership lately. Indian defence ministry recently cleared a AK-203 assault rifle deal which includes technology transfer and provisions for manufacturing in India. Russia sees India as a prospective customer for the recently unveiled Su-75 ‘Checkmate’ stealth fighter aircraft, and India has shown interest in the new S-500 ‘Prometey’ anti-missile system.
The increasing focus on the Indo-Pacific arena makes this year’s summit even more interesting. India has regularly held 2+2 dialogues with Japan, US and Australia in past years. The maintenance of a ‘Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific’ has featured as a central theme in all these engagements. Even though Russia is not new to the 2+2 mechanism having held the dialogue with Egypt, UK, and Japan in the past, the format has lately been used by most nations (US, South Korea, Japan, Australia) as a way to enhance interactions in the Indo-Pacific region. This is much different to how Russia has utilised the 2+2 framework, focusing on counterterrorism and trade.
India sees the Indo-Pacific as a way to coordinate with other who are looking to counterbalance the increasing Chinese dominance and aspirations in the region. Russia sees the Indo-Pacific concept as a western construct for Chinese containment, as well as to limit the Russian ambition for a substantial role in the Eurasian region. With India and Russia still not able to find common ground over the Indo-Pacific, the India-Russia annual summit and the 2+2 ministerial dialogue will revolve around key themes like Afghanistan, Syria, coordination in multilateral forums like BRICS, SCO(Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and RIC (Russia-India-China), coordination to combat COVID-19, and trade and investments.
In last few years India has expressed interest in increasing investments and presence in the Russian Far East (RFE). India has also shown increasing appetite for collaboration with third countries like Japan and South Korea to create capacities in the RFE region to benefit from the vast potential it holds in sphere of hydrocarbon exploration. The two countries have closely coordinated their efforts towards tackling the pandemic, and both will look forward to strenghtening cooperaiton in the healthcare sphere. A major theme for discussion remains the vulnerabilities associated with the Taliban government now firmly in control in Afghanistan. Any issues emanating from this region are seen as an equally undesired prospect by both Moscow and New Delhi.
Another key theme on the agenda will be cooperation through the various multilateral mechanisms like the SCO, BRICS, RIS and UN. India and Russia both see benefits in utilising these mechanisms to promote multipolarity. The rejection of western unilateral sanctions, especially those propounded by US, and unilateral decisions like withdrawal from the JCPOA treaty are also expected to be discussed during the summit. India has increasingly focused on establishing transport corridors to enhance accessibility with Russia. The Northern Sea Route and the Arctic region developments, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Vladivostok-Chennai corridor are also expected to find place during the interactions.
Conclusion
There will be several key themes on the Indo-Russian annual summit 2021 agenda. However, given the state of affairs today where security threats and conflicts are the burning issues, the summit and the inaugural 2+2 dialogue will focus on strengthening the ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’ between the two nations. This can also be seen in the fact that India will be inking the RELOS (Reciprocal of Logistics Agreement) with Russia during the summit, allowing militaries from both sides to access logistics at each other’s bases. Further, there are reports that the two sides are looking towards singing a 10-year agreement for military-technical cooperation as well.
With the governments now realising the vulnerabilities and necessities revolving around future cyber warfare, India and Russia should also look towards enhancing cooperation in the cyber realm. The recently held Russia-India-China foreign minister’s meeting reflected most of the areas where Indian and Russian interests converge and diverge. New Delhi has walked a tight rope when it comes to balancing India’s interests between the west and Russia. But the upcoming summit can prove to be a milestone in India-Russia partnership. It will also answer sceptics who gained voices after the cancellation of the summit last year.